Wheat Acreage Increases, But the Yield Decreases in China
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In 2023, the minimum purchase price of Wheat (third class) will be 1.17 yuan/catties, which is 0.02 yuan/catties higher than that in 2022. The announcement time was before the National Day, which was nearly a month earlier than in previous years, and it was announced before the intensive Wheat planting period in the main producing areas, which played a specific role in boosting farmers’ enthusiasm for planting.
In 2022, the yield of Wheat per unit area hit a record high, and farmers’ income from planting also peaked in the past. In previous years, the average net income of farmers from planting was around 560 yuan/mu. Last year, the net income of farmers from planting reached 800 yuan/mu. Farmers’ planting income has increased significantly, increasing farmers’ enthusiasm for planting.
According to the schedule, the sown Wheat area in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and other provinces has increased compared with the plan. Among them, Hebei and Hubei are expected to increase by more than 100,000 mu each, and the sown area of other major producing provinces is flat or slightly increased compared with average years. The Wheat planting area is estimated to be 369.35 million mu in 2023, an increase of 5%.
China’s Wheat production has shown a steadily increasing trend in the past five years due to my country’s continuous optimization of planting structures and seeds. Although the planting area showed a downward trend from 2018 to 2020, the output continued to rise, ensuring my country’s food security. In 2021, in the case of late sowing in some areas of Hebei, Henan, and Shandong, interventions such as increasing the number of seeds sown, and the weather adapting to Wheat production after the year, the Wheat market ushered in a bumper harvest, and some areas indicated that the yield per mu reached 1,400 catties/ha more than mu.
The weather during Wheat planting in 2022 was suitable, and more than 90% of the main producing areas completed planting within the normal time. Shandong, Henan, and southern Hebei generally indicated the early stage of Wheat growth; the temperature is high, there is no rain or snow, and Wheat growth is relatively high.
When the Wheat is harvested in 2023, many places in the main producing areas will experience continuous rainfall. This round of rain coincides with the Wheat maturity period in southern Henan, causing water accumulation in some areas of Wheat fields and Wheat lodging and mold. Judging from the harvest of new Wheat, southern Henan is more affected by rainfall, and the malting rate is higher; the rate of malting in central and south Henan is relatively lower, and northern Henan is less affected because the Wheat is in the transition period from milk ripening to wax ripening.
Affected by rainfall, northwestern Anhui, central and southern Hubei, central and southern Shaanxi, and southern Shanxi also experienced different degrees of malted Wheat, resulting in differentiation in the quality of new Wheat. In comparison, the quality of new Wheat in most areas of Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu is better. The source reports that the test weight index of new season Wheat is not as good as last year, but most are still within the normal range.
Wheat Harvest and Import in China
The summer grain harvest in 2023 is coming to an end. Judging from the survey results, although the Wheat area in 2023 will increase, the yield per unit area of Wheat will decrease significantly compared with last year, and the per unit yield level will be 900-1000 catties/mu. The total Wheat output in 2023 is estimated to be 133.79 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from last year.
According to AgFlow data, China imported 4.1 million tons of Wheat in Jan-May 2023. In May, Australia led its import market with 0.8 million tons, followed by the US (0.13 million tons) and Canada (30,900 tons).
Other sources: FINANCE SINA
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