U.S. Wheat Exports: 725 Million Bushels, the Lowest Since 1971
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U.S. Wheat production for the 2023/24 marketing year is forecast at 1,739 million bushels, up 74 million from the June estimate and 5 percent above the previous year. USDA, NASS provided its updated survey-based production forecast for the 2023/24 U.S. winter Wheat crop in the July 12 Crop Production report, estimated at 1,206 million bushels. The average winter Wheat yield is at 46.9 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels from the June forecast but still down from 47.0 last year. Winter Wheat area harvested is raised 0.4 million acres from the previous month to 25.7 million acres primarily on increased area in Oklahoma. U.S. winter Wheat area harvested is up 10 percent from last year.
USDA, NASS estimate Hard Red Winter (HRW) production in the new marketing year at 577 million bushels, up 52 million from the June estimate. HRW production is up 9 percent from the previous year but remains historically low. Persistent drought has resulted in lower yields and higher abandonment this season than the average.
Soft Red Winter (SRW) production for 2023/24 is estimated at 422 million bushels, up 20 million from the June estimate and 25 percent above the previous year on higher area and yield. SRW yield is estimated at 71.0 bushels per acre, up from 70.2 last year and the recent 5-year average of 67.1.
White Wheat production is forecast at 245 million bushels, down 28 million bushels from the previous year on lower yields. Soft White Winter Wheat, primarily grown in the Pacific Northwest and representing the bulk of this category, is estimated to be down from last year as growing conditions have been somewhat drier.
Durum production is estimated at 54 million bushels, down 10 million from last year on lower harvested area and yield. Hard Red Spring production is estimated at 441 million bushels, down 1 percent from the previous year, with lower yields more than offsetting higher area harvested.
U.S. Wheat Trade Forecast
According to AgFlow data, the U.S. exported 0.4 million tons of Wheat to the Philippines in July 2023, followed by Japan (0.2 million tons), Taiwan (0.15 million tons), and Brazil (0.13 million tons). Total exports hit 1.5 million tons in July 2023. All-Wheat exports are finalized at 759 million bushels in 2022/23, down 16 million from the previous month due to the combined effect of smaller-than-expected exports in May and revisions to Census data of earlier months. This is the lowest level of U.S. exports since 1971/72.
As per to July 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, U.S. all-Wheat exports, projected at 725 million bushels in 2023/2024, are down 4 percent from the previous year and would be the lowest since 1971/72. Exports for Hard Red Winter (HRW) are projected to be down 34 million bushels from the previous year to 190 million due to smaller supplies from a drought affecting major production regions in 2 consecutive years. Exports of HRW are forecast at the lowest level since by-class supply and utilization records began in 1973/74.
HRW exports are priced uncompetitively with other key global suppliers. Hard Red Spring (205 million bushels) and White exports (170 million bushels) are also projected down from the previous year, but to a lesser extent as supplies of these classes are relatively closer to last year’s levels. Conversely, Soft Red Winter exports are projected to up 28 million bushels to 135 million based on plentiful exportable supplies. Durum exports are forecast to be marginally higher year to year.
U.S. Wheat imports for 2023/24 are lowered by 5 million bushels to 130 million with larger projected domestic supplies. The first by-class import projections are made with HRS as the leading class (55 million bushels), followed by Durum (50 million), HRW (15 million), SRW (5 million), and White (5 million).
Other sources: USDA
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