Poultry to Drive Feed Wheat Import Rise in Thailand
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Thailand’s MY2022/23 Wheat imports are forecast at 2.7 MMT as demand for milling Wheat has dropped more than the growing demand for feed Wheat. Despite the reduction, MY2022/23 Wheat imports are still 8 percent higher than MY2021/22. The USDA revised down milling Wheat imports to 1.1 MMT. Flour mills are cautious in building up inventories of milling Wheat and flour due to concerns about the high import prices of milling Wheat. In addition, bakeries have slowed the production of bakery goods due to the 20 percent increase in production costs. Imports of feed Wheat will increase to 1.6 MMT, up 14 percent from the previous year.
Traders expect strong demand for poultry exports in line with the economic recovery, leading to an increased demand for feed Wheat. Boiler and layer production account for up to 57 percent of total feed demand in 2022. Traders see increased demand for Thai poultry in several markets, including South Korea. In addition, the Government announced the temporary removal of import restrictions on feed Wheat between May 10 and July 31, 2022.
Domestic and export instant noodle sales showed an upward trend of 10 and 2% from the same period last year. Bakery production also increased by around 10 percent as the hotel and restaurant sectors benefited from the gradual removal of stringent Government measures imposed during the COVID-19 outbreak. Instant noodle and bakery production accounts for around 35 and 25 percent, respectively, of total milling Wheat consumption.
Thailand Wheat Import Pattern
Wheat imports in the first nine months of MY2021/22 totaled 1.64 MMT, down 32 percent from the same period last year. Milling Wheat imports totaled 0.76 MMT, down 13 percent from the same period the previous year. Imports of Australian Wheat rose to 0.43 MMT, up 17 percent from the same period last year, of which 0.36 MMT were milling Wheat, and 0.06 MMT were feed Wheat. Import demand for U.S. Wheat declined to 0.56 MMT, down 44 percent. The majority of imports of U.S. Wheat is high protein-content milling Wheat. Australian Wheat accounted for 47 percent of total milling Wheat imports, followed by U.S. Wheat, which accounted for 35 percent of milling Wheat imports.
Canadian Wheat imports, mostly milling Wheat, also declined to 0.11 MMT, down 36 percent from last year. Feed Wheat imports totaled 0.60 MMT, down more than 50 percent from the same period the previous year. Thailand imports roughly 58 percent of its feed Wheat from Ukraine, followed by Romania (21 percent) and Australia (11 percent). Feed mills use more locally produced corn, soybean meal, and duty-free imported corn in their poultry and swine feed rations due to high prices for feed Wheat.
According to AgFlow data, the United States led their Wheat import market with 0.5 MMT in 2021 – 2022, followed by Australia (0.3 MMT) and Ukraine (0.3 MMT). Wheat flour and products imports totaled 0.20 MMT, down 2 percent from last year’s period. Demand for Wheat flour has not recovered due to the reduced number of foreign tourists entering Thailand in 2021. Only 427,869 tourists came to Thailand in 2021, down 94 percent from 2020.
The USDA revised its forecast for MY2021/22 Wheat imports to 2.5 MMT, a 24 percent drop from the previous year due to reduced import demand for milling Wheat and feed Wheat. Flour mills built up inventories of milling Wheat in response to the uncertainty about the government’s ban on agricultural pesticide residuals in MY2020/21. Livestock feed production slowed during the first quarter of 2022 due to the surge in feed ingredients and fuel prices, which account for 30-40 percent of feed production costs.
Other sources: https://www.usda.gov
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