Morocco Is Falling From Ukraine’s Top Wheat Destinations


Sep 27, 2022 | Agricultural Markets News

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Ukraine is the world’s seventh-largest Wheat producer and was forecast to be the fifth-largest exporter for the 2021/22 marketing year. Generally, Wheat is grown throughout Ukraine, but the southern and eastern oblasts comprise the main production region. Top Wheat producing oblasts are Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhia.

Ukraine grows several Winter crops, including Wheat, barley, rye, and rapeseed. Still, the most prevalent of these are Wheat, which dominates the Winter crop landscape and accounts for about 75 percent of total Winter crop area for the 2021/22 season. Winter Wheat is grown in many oblasts but is clustered mainly in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine, which is in the southeastern region. It is planted from early September to mid-November and harvested between July and September.

Ukraine grows minimal amounts of spring Wheat (accounting for about 3 percent of total production). Winter Wheat for 2020/21 was planted on 6.41 million hectares, down 16 percent from last year’s 7.59 million hectares, according to data from the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine (SSC). In 2020, the Wheat yield for Ukraine was 37,950 hg per ha. Though Ukraine Wheat yield fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to increase through the 2001 – 2020 period ending at 37,950 hg per ha in 2020.

USDA experts increased their Wheat production forecast for Ukraine for 2022/23 by 1 million tons. Thus, it is forecast that production will amount to 20.5 million tons, exports – 11 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for last reserves increased to 4.71 million tons.

In 2021, Ukraine produced about 33 million tons of Wheat, of which it shipped nearly 20 million tons abroad, making it the sixth largest exporter in the world. This year, according to an analysis released by the satellite company Kayrros, Ukraine will be able to produce only about 21 million tons of Wheat, which is two-thirds of the previous Grain production. It is also about 23 percent less than the last five years’ average. Kyiv imposed a ban on exporting Grain and many other food products to preserve its own food supplies.

Wheat Export Markets by tons ( 2021 - 2022)

Ukrainian Wheat Export

In the last year, Ukrainian Wheat exports were valued at $5.1 billion, with Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as the primary destinations. In value terms, the top destinations were Egypt ($858 million), Indonesia ($727 million), Turkey ($445 million), Pakistan ($353 million), and Morocco ($232 million). These top five markets accounted for nearly 50% of Ukraine’s Wheat exports.

Through February 2022, Ukraine shipped approximately 95 percent of its expected Wheat exports for the marketing year, which is typical. Unlike the U.S. Wheat export campaign, which is steady throughout the year, Ukrainian Wheat is primarily exported between August and November.

As per AgFlow data, in volume, Egypt was the largest export market of Ukrainian Wheat with 4 million tons in 2021-2022, followed by Indonesia (2.8 million tons), Turkey (2.6 million tons), Pakistan (1.5 million tons), Bangladesh (0.8 million tons), and Tunisia (0.8 million tons).

According to the data of the State Customs Service, as of September 14, since the beginning of 2022/23 MR, Ukraine exported 5.8 million tons of Grain and leguminous crops, including 1.5 million tons of September. The press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine reported it. In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, shipments were: Wheat – 1.8 million tons (in September – 577 thousand tons); barley – 525 thousand tons (195 thousand tons); rye – 1.3 thousand tons (0.8 thousand tons); and corn – 3.4 million tons (730 thousand tons).

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