Ukraine Ships 40% Of Soybeans to Turkey via the BSGI Corridor
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In MY 2023/24, Turkey’s Soybean area harvested is forecast to contract slightly to 34,000 hectares, down 1,000 hectares from the previous year, as some farmers are expected to switch to growing other crops, especially vegetables, with higher profit margins. Although domestic demand for Soybeans is quite strong, the area harvested has remained relatively constant for the last decade. Many farmers still prefer planting cotton, corn, and certain vegetables since these crops often have better profit margins.
In addition, the area harvested has been limited due to farmers’ perception that Soybeans are only used as a rotation crop to improve soil health. The Cukurova region in south-central Turkey, part of which was impacted by the earthquake, is the leading Soybean growing area, accounting for about 95 percent of total production.
MY 2023/24 Soybean production is forecast to decline slightly year-over-year to 140,000 MT due to a projected decrease in area harvested. MY 2022/23 production is adjusted marginally higher to 145,000 MT based on better-than-expected yields. According to the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Turkey produced about 5,000 MT of organic Soybeans in this period.
Turkey’s Soybean consumption is forecast to go up year-over-year to 3.15 MMT, an increase of 100,000 metric tons from the previous year. This anticipated increase is based on the growing demand for Soybeans, especially for inclusion in poultry and aquaculture feed rations. The MY 2022/23 Soybean consumption estimate remains unchanged at 3.05 MMT due to steady demand, especially for poultry feed. According to industry sources, broiler feed production grew by nearly 9 percent in the calendar year 2022, more than offsetting a 4 percent decline in layer feed production. In MY 2023/24, Soybean stocks are forecast at 247,000 MT, marginally lower than the previous year.
Soybean Trade in Turkey
According to AgFlow data, Brazil shipped 1.1 million tons of Soybeans to Turkey in Jan-May 2023, followed by Ukraine (0.5 million tons), Russia (10,379 tons), and Moldova (5,506 tons). Imports of Soybeans are forecast to reach a near-record high of 3.1 MMT in MY 2023/24, an increase of 100,000 MT from the previous year. This import forecast assumes growing poultry feed demand and, to a lesser extent, aquaculture feed, primarily made from Soybeans. The MY 2022/23 import estimate for Soybeans remains unchanged at 3.0 MMT, based on the latest available trade data. During the first four months of MY 2022/23 (Sep-Dec), imports totaled 552,000 MT.
Ukraine and Brazil were the leading suppliers, with 400,000 MT and 147,000 MT, respectively. About 40 percent of the Soybeans from Ukraine came through the BSGI maritime corridor. Brazil has historically been the largest Soybean supplier to Turkey. For historical context, in a little more than a decade, the volume of Soybean imports has doubled as Turkey’s poultry industry has expanded. Import volumes will likely continue growing to support the growth of the poultry and aquaculture industries.
MY 2023/24 Soybean exports are projected at 100,000 MT, up about one-third from the previous year. Based on historical trading patterns, most of this forecasted amount is expected to be transshipments. The MY 2022/23 Soybean export estimate remains unchanged at 75,000 MT. During the first four months of MY 2022/23 (Sep-Dec), Soybean exports totaled 17,000 MT, most destined for the United States. Based on U.S. trade statistics, Soybeans exported from Turkey (including transshipments) to the United States are certified organic.
For historical reference, MY 2021/22 Soybean exports totaled about 134,000, of which about 100,000 MT was transshipments. The United States was the leading destination, accounting for more than 85 percent of Turkey’s total Soybean exports.
Other sources: USDA
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