Ukraine Barley: Turkey Will Replace China’s Demand?
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Barley is in second place after wheat in the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. This cereal is multi-dimensional, as it is widely used as food, as technical, and as a fodder crop. Ukraine is the world’s third-largest producer of Barley. According to the results of 4 months of the 2022/23 marketing year, 1.1 million tons of Barley were shipped from Ukraine to the foreign market, which is 76% less than the similar indicator of the 2021/22 MR (4.6 million tons). It is noted that out of the above volume, 29% of the grain consignments are shipped through the “grain corridor.”
Romania became the leading importer of Ukrainian Barley from July to October last year, purchasing 35% of the total exports, or 393.1 thousand tons in natural terms. The second position was taken by Spain with a share of 21% (236.8 thousand tons). And in third place is Turkey, having imported 168.7 thousand tons of grain (15% of all shipments).
In 2022/23 MR, taking into account the significant decrease in Barley production to 5.5 million tons (-42% to the 2021 harvest), under an optimistic scenario of the development of events, the export of grain from Ukraine is expected at the level of 2.4 million tons (- 58% to the assessment of the 2021/22 season). In a pessimistic scenario, the shipment of culture to the foreign market may amount to 2 million tons, which will be 65% less than exports in 2021/22 MR (5.8 million tons).
During the two previous seasons, 45% of the total exported China bought a volume of Ukrainian Barley, in particular, in 2020/21 MR – 2.9 million tons, in 2021/22 MR – 2.6 million tons, but last year, due to the war, demand from the People’s Republic of China was almost absent. Against the background of low export demand, the purchase prices for Barley in the ports of Ukraine remained at $175-190/t or UAH 7,000-7,200/t, while the prices for deliveries to the port of fodder wheat and corn have risen to $200-215/t.
Domestic processors are not interested in malting Barley because the enterprises are stopped due to interruptions in energy supply, and export demand remains low. In recent years, China has begun to actively buy French Barley, especially against the background of trade disputes with Australia and a decrease in supplies from Ukraine. In January 2022, Chinese importers purchased 5-10 batches of French fodder Barley in the volume of 600-900 thousand tons with delivery in the following months, so the demand for Ukrainian Barley will remain minimal for the time being.
Ukrainian Barley Trade
As per the AgFlow data, Turkey imported 0.5 million tons of Barley from Ukraine in 2022, followed by Spain (0.36 million tons) and Libya (0.2 million tons). Other following markets were Jordan (80,795 tons), Tunisia (72,000 tons), China (68,794 tons), Israel (65,793 tons), Romania (36,283 tons), Etc. Total export volume reached 1.6 million tons last year. In 2020, Ukraine exported Barley worth $883 million, making it the 4th largest exporter of Barley in the world. The same year, Barley was the 11th most shipped product in Ukraine. The leading destination of Barley exports from Ukraine is China ($470 million), Saudi Arabia ($118 million), Libya ($69.9 million), Tunisia ($61 million), and Israel ($27.3 million). The fastest-growing export markets for Barley in Ukraine between 2019 and 2020 were China ($317 million), Tunisia ($57.3 million), and Libya ($34.6 million).
In terms of Barley import, Ukraine purchased Barley worth $2.96 million in 2020, becoming the world’s 65th largest importer of Barley. Ukraine imports Barley primarily from: Russia ($2.2 million) and Germany ($300k).
Other sources: AGROKAPITAL
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