Turkey Transships 300,000 Tons of Barley Annually
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Turkey’s Barley production for MY 2023/24 is forecast to fall 1.4 MMT year-to-year to 6.0 MMT, based on dry weather conditions over the winter and a reduction in the area harvested. Barley is more affected by drought than wheat because of its shorter growing season. In comparison, wheat has an extra month or two of possible spring rains before harvest. Barley area harvested for MY 2023/24 is projected to decrease by 100,000 HA to 3.7 million HA as farmers shift to other row crops, such as wheat and onions, that offer potentially higher profit margins.
Barley consumption in MY 2023/24 is projected at 7.6 MMT in Turkey, down 900,000 MT from the previous year due to lower domestic production and falling feed demand. Meantime, demand for malting Barley is forecast to hold steady. The MY 2022/23 Barley consumption estimate is projected at 8.5 MMT, up year-over-year due to larger-than-expected import volumes by TMO (Turkish Grain Board). TMO purchased most of the imported Barley and sold it at a discount to stabilize livestock feed prices. In October of last year, TMO announced it would continue selling Barley at around 5,250 TL/MT ($283/MT), slightly lower than the domestic market price in Turkish Lira. By comparison, the price of Barley on the Polatli Commodity Exchange in March 2023 was 5,500 TL/MT (~$288/MT).
Feed manufacturers and, to a lesser extent, the malting and beer industries are the leading end users of Barley. Feed use accounts for about 90 percent of total Barley consumption and is predominantly used in ruminant feed rations. Depending on the price and availability of Barley, feed makers may decide to switch to alternative ingredients such as wheat bran. Malting Barley consumption, which has held steady in recent years, is estimated at around 900,000 MT. With the projected drop in domestic Barley production in MY 2023/24, Barley stocks for this period are forecast to fall to 416,000 MT.
Turkish Barley Trade
According to AgFlow data, Russia led the Turkish Barley import market with 0.24 million tons in April, followed by Ukraine (92,572 tons), Romania (75,866 tons), and Estonia (50,023 tons). For MY 2023/24, Barley imports are projected at 1.8 MMT, up by 200,000 from the previous year, to compensate for the forecasted decline in domestic Barley production. This forecast assumes Turkey can continue sourcing imported Barley at a competitive price from Black Sea suppliers. Otherwise, compound feed manufacturers will switch to alternative ingredients in their animal feed rations.
The Barley import estimate for MY 2022/23 remains at 1.6 MMT. Of this amount, TMO purchases are expected to account for about 1.4 MMT or about 85 percent of the total. Imports from June through January of the current marketing year reached 950,000 MT. Russia (510,000 MT) and Ukraine (325,000 MT) were the leading suppliers. TMO purchased Black Sea Barley in March for about $280/MT. The duty on imported Barley remains at zero until the end of April.
In MY 2023/24, Barley exports are forecast to remain unchanged year-to-year at 300,000 MT, assuming continued demand from neighboring countries. Nearly all Barley exports are transshipments. The Barley export estimate for MY 2022/23 is adjusted higher to 300,000 MT based on the latest available trade data. From June through January of the current marketing year, exports climbed year-to-year to 192,000 MT. Major export destinations were Syria (102,000 MT) and Iraq (85,000 MT).
In 2021, Turkey exported Barley worth $38.7M, making it the world’s 26th largest exporter of Barley. The leading destination of Barley exports from Turkey is Syria ($22.9M), Cyprus ($12.3M), Iraq ($3.21M), Azerbaijan ($239k), and Georgia ($26.3k).
Other sources: USDA
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