Spain Becomes Canada’s Most Favored Corn Destination
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Statistics Canada farmer survey results show that Corn area will remain steady in Ontario, the main Corn-growing area in Canada. Corn area is forecast to increase in Quebec and Manitoba. Corn production is projected to fall marginally due to the assumption of a return to five-year average yields. Forecasts are based on revised 2021 Corn harvest and yield estimates published by Statistics Canada, which differ from USDA official estimates. Corn yield is estimated at 10 tons per ha in 2022/2023.
Heavy April and early May rain showers have delayed planting in Ontario and Quebec until the week of May 8 or later. The most favorable Corn crops in Ontario and Quebec usually result from Corn planted in late April and the first half of May because the crop can utilize the full growing season. In Manitoba, farmers aim to plant Corn between May 1 and May 15 each year.
MY 2022/2023 Corn production remained steady as a year-over-year increase in Corn yields offset a reduced harvested Corn area. MY 2023/24 imports and exports are forecast to remain stable from the previous year due to expectations of similar domestic supply levels and unchanged domestic and U.S. demand. Feed Corn consumption is forecast to fall in MY 2022/23 and again in MY 2023/24 on the assumption of improved feed barley availability and grazing options and the assumption of reduced demand from hog and cattle operations due to shrinking herd sizes.
Andriani S.P.A., an Italian pasta company known for its Biori and Felicia pasta brands, has announced plans to build a 50,000 sq ft production facility in London, Ontario, designed to manufacture allergen and gluten-free pasta. It will use grains (Corn and oats) and is expected to be operational in the first half of 2024. Ending stocks are forecast to remain near the five-year average in MY 2022/23 and MY 2023/24 on steady overall supply and demand.
Canadian Corn Trade
According to AgFlow data, Canada exported 0.16 million tons of Corn to Spain in Jan-Apr 2023, followed by the United Kingdom (91,080 tons), Ireland (60,000 tons), and the Netherlands (30,000 tons). Total imports reached 0.34 million tons in Jan-Apr of this year. MY 2022/23 Corn imports are forecast to fall 70 percent over the previous year due to increased field moisture in the Canadian prairies that improved domestic production in 2022 and reduced import demand.
FAS Ottawa forecasts Corn imports will fall from 6.1 million MT in MY 2021/22 to 1.9 million MT in MY 2022/23. This forecast is higher than the official USDA forecast of 1.1 million MT. Imports YTD in February is already at 817,000 MT with six months remaining in the marketing year. The pace of imports has slowed, but average monthly imports for the next six months are forecast to reach an average of 140,000-180,000 MT per month.
In December 2022, Canada’s Corn exports accounted for up to C$101 million, and imports accounted for up to C$81.9 million, resulting in a positive trade balance of C$18.9 million. In December 2022, Corn was exported mainly to Ireland (C$53.6 million), the United Kingdom (C$28.7 million), the United States (C$18.2 million), the Netherlands (C$66.2k), and Japan (C$15.1k), and were primarily imported from the United States (C$81.8 million) and Argentina (C$21.5k)
In 2021, Canada exported Corn worth $491 million, making it the world’s 15th largest exporter of Corn. In the same year, Corn was Canada’s 155th most shipped product. The leading destination of Corn exports from Canada are Ireland ($130 million), the United States ($125 million), Spain ($96.8 million), the United Kingdom ($79.7 million), and Portugal ($30.2 million).
Other sources: USDA
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