Canadian Barley Supply to Grow by 34%
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For 2022-23, the Canadian Barley production estimate was finalized by Statistics Canada (STC) in its December production report at nearly 10 million tons, 6% or 559 thousand tons (kt) above the September model-based forecast, mainly reflecting an 11% (551 Kt) increase in Alberta Barley production. The recovery in 2022 production mainly benefited from near-normal yield performance on the Canadian Prairies, which rebounded from last year’s near-record lows. Production is distributed as follows: 54% in Alberta, 36% in Saskatchewan, 7% in Manitoba, and 3% in all other provinces.
In the largest Barley-producing province of Alberta, the 2022 Barley output was pegged at 5.38 Mt, up from 4.83 Mt in September and the highest since 2013 due to improved yield and a larger harvested area. The provincial yield level was pegged at 4.08 t/ha, up 60% and 14%, respectively, from last year’s near-record low and the previous five-year average. Barley output in Saskatchewan and Manitoba was lowered by 1% in each province from September, mainly reflecting deteriorated yield, despite a larger harvested area.
Due to the significant increase in production, more than offsetting the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports, supply is expected to increase by 34% year on year to nearly 10.6 Mt but still be 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average. Given larger supplies, domestic use and exports are expected to expand from 2021-22. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.90 Mt.
According to STC’s monthly international trade data, Canadian Barley exports in August-October 2022, the first three months of the 2022-23 crop year, were pegged at 816 thousand tons (Kt), down from 989 Kt in August-October 2021. The monthly export rate from August-October 2022 has increased sharply. Of the total export volume, about 88% was shipped to China and 10% to the US. Barley malt exports in August-October 2022 neared 122 Kt, down from about 140 Kt in August-October 2021 and the previous five-year average.
Compared to Barley grain exports, exporting pace of malt has been relatively stable. Of the total exports, about 52% were shipped to the US, 27% to Japan, and 11% to Mexico. As per AgFlow data, Canada exported 1.8 million tons of Barley to China in 2022, followed by Japan (55,400) tons, Panama (40,448 tons), and France (30,000 tons).
For 2022-23, the Canadian rye production was estimated by STC at 520 Kt, 11% (50 Kt) above the September production estimate, mainly reflecting a 42% (21 Kt) increase in Ontario, 45% (19 Kt) increase in Quebec and 12% (10 Kt) increase in Alberta, despite revised lower rye production in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Canadian Barley Price
For the crop year to date, feed Barley prices in Alberta averaged $360/t, $15/t under the level a year ago. In Saskatchewan, feed Barley prices averaged nearly $315/t, $35/t below last year’s level. In Manitoba, feed Barley prices averaged around $320/t, $35/t lower than a year ago. Malting Barley prices in the three provinces declined by about $70/t from a year ago. As a result, the price premium for malting Barley relative to feed Barley declined from last year’s high in all three provinces. For the entire crop year, the Lethbridge feed Barley average price is predicted at $400/t, down nearly $30/t from last year’s record high due to expectations for a domestic feed grain supply recovery. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by high corn prices and robust demand.
Worldwide, feed Barley prices in the US/Montana have risen in recent weeks despite declining CBOT corn futures prices, with the crop year-to-date average lower than that of a year ago. Feed Barley export quotations from the Black Sea, Europe/France, and Australia/Adelaide have fallen recently, with the crop year-to-date averages higher than a year ago. Australia/Adelaide malt Barley prices have strengthened in recent weeks.
Other sources: AGRICULTURE CANADA
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