Beneficial Year for the Brazilian Corn Crop


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Brazil is one the largest exporter of Corn in the world, even surpassing the United States. Brazilian Corn production is the third largest in the world with increased productivity, and this record has made Corn exports 5th in the ranking as one of the most exported products in Brazil. According to Forecast for the Agricultural Crop released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), agricultural harvest is expected to reach 270.7 million tons, up 7.8% in 2022 compared to the 2021 forecast. 

Corn crops account for the projection of a new historical record for agricultural production for 2022, according to the first forecast for the Agricultural Crop of IBGE. First-crop Corn will reach 28.7 million tons in 2022, an increase of 11.1 % compared to 2021. Second-crop Corn production is expected to increase by 26.8% in 2022. In total, there will be 105.9 million tons. 

The market scenario does not show a significant downward trend for Corn prices since the scenario points to demand and supply still adjusted for next year, said Sergio De Zen, Director of Agricultural information and agricultural policies at Conab. 

Therefore, Brazilian producers remain positive, despite high production costs. In addition, it must be remembered that in the last two harvests, the climate was a variable of significant influence on the development of the culture. The extreme drought of the previous growing season ravaged the yields of Corn. Yields are expected to be 6% higher for Corn. 

September is generally the month with the highest shipments in the country, and it is possible that the exporters also see high numbers for the month. Thus, producers accumulate a volume of close to 24/25 million tons between February and September. October to January could quickly complete around 12 million tons to the target of 37 million for the year. 

Brazilian Corn exports are to exceed 37 million tons this business year, and sales flow needs to accelerate from October to January, which seems to start happening. As per AgFlow data, in volume, Iran was the largest export market of Brazilian Corn with 5.4 million tons in 2021-2022, followed by Egypt (5 million tons), Spain (2.2 million tons), Japan (2.2 million tons), South Korea (1.8 million tons), Argentina (1.5 million tons), Taiwan (1.1 million tons), and Dominican Republic (1.1 million tons). China’s import was 0.9 million tons.    

Beneficial Year for the Brazilian Corn Crop

China: Influential Partner of Brazilian Corn Trade

The 2022/2023 marketing year is forecast to be a beneficial year for Brazilian export. China, as the world’s biggest importer, agreed to waive some requirements from the phytosanitary agreement signed with Brazil to allow Corn exports this year, harvested during the 2021-22 season. Two countries signed a deal in May over sanitary requirements related to grain imports, such as updating quarantine rules.

The agreement initially provided for exports to begin in the 2022-23 season, but on 25 July, the Minister of Agriculture Marcos Montes said that the deal was being revisited amid expectations of a record winter Corn crop. Therefore, the country needs to train its farmers to align with Chinese needs regarding phytosanitary.

China will still require Brazil to prove that the cargo is not contaminated by any of the 18 quarantine pests listed in the protocol, National association of cereal exporters’ (Anec) Director-general Sergio Mendes said. The current crop will be inspected directly in warehouses and port terminals. For the 2022-23 harvest, a plan is being discussed to monitor the crop along the entire chain, including at rural properties. Trading companies expect to export at least 1 million tons of Corn this year to China.


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