Belarus Rapeseed Oil Exports Stimulate Global VegOil Trade
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Global 2022/23 Oilseed production is forecast at 629.1 million tons, down 400,000 from July, with lower Uruguay Soybeans and China Sunflower seed partially offset by higher Belarus Rapeseed and Paraguay Soybeans. Oilseed exports are down 1.0 million tons on lower Canada Rapeseed and Uruguay Soybeans. China Soybean imports are up 1.0 million tons, with lower Bangladesh and Egypt Soybean imports offsetting. Global Oilseed crush is down 1.0 million tons as lower China Sunflower seed, and lower Bangladesh and Egypt Soybean crush is only partially offset by higher China Soybean crush.
The international Vegetable Oil trade is up on gains in Argentina Soybean Oil and Belarus Rapeseed Oil exports. Global Meal trade is up slightly on higher Soybean Meal exports from the United States. Global Oilseed stocks are up 700,000 tons on higher Canada Rapeseed and Argentina Soybean carryout. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for Soybeans is unchanged at $14.20 per bushel.
Global 2023/24 Oilseed production is forecast to be down 3.6 million tons to 663.7 million as reduced U.S. Soybeans, Canada Rapeseed, and EU Sunflower seed were not offset by higher Russia and Ukraine Sunflower seed and Belarus Rapeseed. Oilseed exports are down on lower U.S. Soybeans and Canada and Uruguay Rapeseed. Correspondingly, Rapeseed imports are lower in China and Mexico, and Soybean imports in Pakistan, Egypt, and Bangladesh. Global Vegetable Oil trade is up on increased Belarus Rapeseed Oil and Ukraine Sunflower seed Oil exports. Global Meal exports are up on increased Ukraine Sunflower seed Meal and U.S. Soybean Meal. Global Oilseed stocks are down on lower U.S. Soybeans,
Canada Rapeseed and EU Sunflower seed carryout exceeding higher Ukraine Sunflower seed carryout. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for Soybeans is up 30 cents to $12.70 per bushel. According to AgFlow data, Canada exported 0.3 million tons of Rapeseeds to China in July 2023, followed by Mexico (0.2 million tons) and Japan (6,226 tons).
Although fundamentals were mixed, prices for the global Soybean complex finished higher on average in July compared to the previous month. U.S. Soybean prices were trending higher in July following lower Soybean crop expectations after the June 30, 2023, NASS Acreage report and strong demand for crush. However, towards the end of the month, prices began to decline on reports of improving weather conditions in the Midwestern United States, with the most active Chicago Soybean futures contract losing most of its monthly positive gains by the beginning of August.
Although U.S. Soybeans remained the most expensive offers, the price premium against South American Soybeans narrowed in July. Argentina Soybeans began trading lower than Brazil origin for the first time since 2022 at the start of August as Brazil Soybeans gained strength on seasonality and high disappearance. Soybean Oil continued to drive more of the Soybean crush value in July, as prices of other Vegetable Oils like palm remained supported by solid demand.
Economic challenges in Egypt, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have muted global Meal demand, restraining prices. Compared to other exporters, the premium for U.S. Soybean Oil jumped dramatically this month to more than $600/ton, driven by domestic biofuel demand, a reduction in forecast U.S. Soybean production, and rising Rapeseed Oil prices caused by drought in Canada.
Rapeseed Oil Export in Belarus
In 2021, Belarus exported Rapeseed Oil worth $420 million, making it the world’s 8th largest exporter of Rapeseed Oil. In the same year, Rapeseed Oil was Belarus’s 13th most exported product. The leading destination of Rapeseed Oil exports from Belarus is Russia ($174 million), Norway ($74.2 million), Poland ($63.6 million), Lithuania ($36.1 million), and Latvia ($22.4 million).
Other sources: USDA
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