Spain Leads Canadian Corn Exports

For 2022-23, the Canadian Corn production estimate was finalized by Statistics Canada at 14.54 million tons, 2% (322 Kt) below the September forecast, mainly reflecting a 4% (364 Kt) decrease in Ontario Corn production. National yield potential was also lowered from the September estimate, but the harvested area was revised slightly higher. Production is distributed as follows: 65% in Ontario, 24% in Quebec, 9% in Manitoba, and 2% in all other provinces. The Agricultural Department of the US projected Canada’s Corn production at 14 million tons in MY2022/2023.

In the largest Corn-producing province of Ontario, in 2022, Corn output was pegged at 9.44 million tons, down from 9.8 million tons in September, primarily due to a decline in yield, despite a larger harvested area. The final 2022 Corn output in Ontario remains significant and is only slightly lower than last year’s record high. The estimates of Corn output for Quebec and Manitoba were revised higher from the September forecast, largely reflecting improved yield in both provinces, despite a smaller harvested area. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.40 million tons, decreasing by 13% from last year’s record high but slightly higher than the previous five-year average.

Corn prices posted a decline in recent weeks, with the average price in Ontario/Chatham region declining to nearly $315/t versus $330/t a month ago. For the entire crop year, the Chatham Corn price is projected at $320/t, nearly $10/t above last year’s historically high, supported by the outlook for brisk demand and strong US Corn prices.

In the US, the marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers for Corn was predicted by the USDA at US$6.7/bu, down from US$6.8/bu a month ago but up from US$6.0/bu a year ago and only slightly lower than the record high US$6.9/bu in 2012-13. US Corn export quotations at the Gulf of Mexico have been in a downward trend over the recent two months and were pegged at under US$300/t, the lowest in more than three months and on par with Corn prices at Argentina/Up River and Brazil/Paranagua, but about US$30/t higher than Ukrainian Corn export quotations.

Due to sharply lower imports more than offsetting larger production and carry-in stocks, supply is expected to decrease by 14% from the record high seen in 2021-22 to 19.3 million tons but still be the second highest on record. Domestic use is predicted to decrease from 2021-22 on lower feed use. Exports are projected to be on par with last year’s level but increase significantly from the previous five-year average.

According to the AgFlow data, Spain led the Canadian Corn export market with 190,000 tons in 2022, followed by the Netherlands (96,000 tons), the United Kingdom (88,500 tons), Ireland (81,640 tons), China (67,000 tons), and Portugal (61,395 tons). The following markets were Japan and Brazil. The country’s total export volume was 674,535 tons. Canadian Corn exports in September-October 2022 were pegged at 88 Kt, versus over 90 Kt in September-October 2021 and the previous five-year average in the same period. Of the total exports, about 53% were shipped to European countries and 47% to the US.

During September-October 2022, the first two months of the 2022-23 crop year for Corn, Canada imported 186 Kt of Corn, versus 425 Kt in September-October 2021 and 339 Kt for the previous five-year average in the same period. Most of the imported Corn originated in the US and was destined for Western Canada. As per AgFlow data, Canada imported 122,235 tons of Corn from the United States in 2022, while they purchased 69,000 tons from Brazil.

Other sources: AGRICULTURE CANADA

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