Agricultural Market Coverage – Week 21

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May 27, 2022 | Agricultural Markets

Reading time: 5 minutes

The Impact of The Indonesia Palm Oil Ban

The Indonesian government announced a ban on some Palm product exports 1 month ago to try and curb the surging domestic prices and low domestic stocks. The impact on export is straightforward as Palm Olein exports decreased ~694 kmt YoY between May 1st & 23rd. Palm Kernel Expeller & Palm Stearin also saw substantial exports decrease, losing 174 & 142 kmt respectively at the same time. Overall, Indonesia exported 1.28 Mmt fewer YoY for the period. Export prices during the ban continued rising as importers relied on Malaysia, which could not handle the demand fully. On Monday, May 23rd, 2022, the end of the export ban will alleviate some pressure on the Vegoils market.

 

Read also: Argentina Sunseed: The last Hope for Vegoils?

Read also: Is Soybean the Winner of the 2022 Vegoils Crisis?

Indonesia Palm Products Exports Between May 1st & 23rd 2022

Argentina Sunseed Complex Exports Between Jan & Apr 2022

Track Cargos for the Palm Complex From Indonesia & Malaysia to Up to 62 Destinations

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Read also: How Biofuels & Weather Are Going to Impact Your Vegoils Trades In 2022

Can Ukraine Exports Fight Back in May 2022? 

Ukraine exports could reach up to 1.5 Mmt in May 2022. That said, sea transportation is still blocked for many ports in Ukraine and only started again near Odesa a few weeks ago. However,  exports to Romania by sea increased 66.8 kmt YoY to complete shipments using crops transported by trains. Moreover, exports to Turkey increased slightly by 5.8% YoY, despite the situation. Yet, exports past Turkey (thus on larger vessels) decreased heavily —particularly in Egypt, where exports decreased by more than 42 kmt YoY or were non-existent. Overall, Ukraine directly shipped ~113 kmt of goods less in May YoY, representing only ~21.4% of the total expected volume.

Ukraine Agricultural Exports Between May 1st & 23rd 2022

Japan Corn Imports by Origin Between Jan & Apr: 2022 v. 2021

Track Cargos from Ukraine ports for Corn, Sunseed Oil, & Up to 27 Other Commodities

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Read also: Ain’t No Sunseed When the Black Sea Market Is Gone

Read also: Is China Really Slowing Down Imports in 2022

Record Rapeseed Crop Means Record Exports for Australia

In 2021/2022, Australia profited from a bumper Rapeseed crop. Meanwhile, Canada —the usual top Rapeseed exporter— lost a very large portion of its crop, leading to Australia dominating the export market. Indeed, since the beginning of MY 21/22, Australia increased its Rapeseed exports every month, except for Feb, when exports shrank only by 16.5 kmt (-3.4% YoY), largely compensated by Mar exports, where Australia exported ~560 kmt more YoY. Overall, between Nov 21 & May 22, Australia increased exports by more than 2.2 Mmt, thanks to the poor Canadian crop and a global Vegoils crisis.

Australia Rapeseed Exports Between Nov & May: 2020/21 v. 2021/22

Asian Countries Wheat Import Delta Between Jan & Apr: 2022 v. 2021

Track Rapeseed Cargos from Australia ports to Up to 21 Other Origins

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Read also: Does Less Corn Mean Less Demand in 2022?

Read also: The Impact of The Indonesia Palm Oil Ban