Russia Projects to Harvest up to 131 Million Tons of Grain
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The gross Grain harvest of the Russian Federation in the new season of 2023 may range from 127 million tons to 131.5 million, with Wheat from 80 million tons to 86 million. The forecasts were announced at the XVI Winter Grain Conference. In 2022, The Russian Federation collected a record Grain harvest – 153.83 million tons in weight after completion, 26.7% more than the previous year’s harvest, including an increased Wheat harvest – by 37.3% to 104.44 million tons.
Experts’ expectations are still at this level or higher. “The forecast for the harvest-2023: Wheat – 80-81 million tons, 19.5 million tons – barley, and 14-15 million tons of corn. In general, the forecast of the Grain harvest in 2023 is 127–128 million tons,” said Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical center “Prozerno.”
“At the beginning of winter, there were 3.1% of bad and unperformed winter crops. But in winter, there was less snow in the European part of the Black Earth region, in the south. If we compare January 2022 and January 2023, the snow cover is smaller and worse. In March, we are promised a temperature swing in Russia. Now the forecast of winter crops is 94-95% good and satisfactory,” Petrichenko added.
“We live in an era when Grain prices are downward – Wheat, corn, barley. Reasons: the fight against inflation, the rising cost of money, and the decline in effective demand from developing countries. As a result of the super–record Wheat harvest in Russia and a large harvest in Australia, the seven largest exporters have more Wheat to export than in 2022,” Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute of Agricultural Market said.
As for the export potential for the new season, 2023-2024 agricultural year (starting from July 1, 2023), it is 53-54 million tons of Grain, including 42 million tons of Wheat, the expert suggested. The official estimate is higher: The Ministry of Agriculture reported on March 1 that the target for Grain exports from the Russian Federation in the 2022-2023 agricultural year is about 60 million tons; the export potential for Wheat was previously estimated at 39.5 million tons.
The cost of a ton of Wheat in 2022 amounted to 10,754 rubles. The export duty on Wheat from the Russian Federation will amount to 5,328 rubles per ton from March 22, the Ministry of Agriculture reports. The duty on barley is 3,298 rubles per ton, and on corn – 2,647 rubles per ton. According to AgFlow data, Russia shipped 3.1 million tons of Wheat abroad in January. Key markets are Turkey (0.7 million tons), Egypt (0.65 million tons), Saudi Arabia (0.26 million tons), and Pakistan (0.26 million tons).
Russia – Ukraine Grain Deal
A deal allowing Ukraine to export millions of tons of Grain through the Black Sea has been extended despite the ongoing conflict with Russia. However, it is unclear how long it will last, with Ukraine pushing for 120 days and Russia calling for 60 days. Russia has warned it will not allow the deal to continue unless sanctions against Moscow are softened. Moscow proposed the 60-day extension citing concerns that a parallel agreement on Russian food and fertilizer exports was not being respected. As the expiration date loomed, Russia announced it was only ready to extend the deal until May 18. Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, said his country would try to extend the deal beyond two months.
Ukraine and Russia are essential suppliers of Grain and fertilizer throughout the world. Before the war, Ukraine exported approximately three-quarters of the Grain it produced. According to the data of the European Commission, about 90 percent of these exports were shipped from Black Sea ports.
Other sources: GRAIN UNION
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