Canada’s Ontario Expects a Record Level of Corn Production
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In 2021-22, the Canadian Corn supply and demand situation showed an increase in production, imports, and supply, greater industrial use, feed consumption, and export demand relative to last year. Carry-out stocks are predicted at 1.9 million tons, a decrease of 12% and 18% from a year ago and the previous five-year average. The stocks-to-use ratio will continue to fall to 10%, versus 14% last year and 15% for the five-year average.
The 2021-22 Chatham, Corn price average is forecast at a new record of $310/t, up $38/t and over $100/t, respectively, from the old record set in 2020-21 and the previous five-year average. The price surge is linked to concerns about global Corn supply prospects and strong demand.
For 2022-23, Canadian producers seeded nearly 1.47 million ha of Corn, the third largest on record. This is 2% lower than the March intended acres, mainly reflecting fewer acres planted in Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba, the major Corn-growing provinces in Canada. Despite this, Corn acres in the three provinces expanded from last year, pushing total Corn acreage 4% larger than last year.
Production is forecast at 14.4 million tons, assuming higher than average yield potential and normal abandonment. If realized, it will be 3% higher than last year, also a record level, thanks to historically high production expected in Ontario. Supply is projected at 18.5 million tons, decreasing by 10% from 2021-22 due to significantly smaller carry-in stocks and imports, despite the larger production forecast, but on par with the five-year average.
The average price is projected at $300/t, down from the record level of 2021-22, but still, a relatively high level, supported by strong new crop Corn prices in the US, due largely to uncertain global Corn supply prospects. Domestic use is predicted to decline from 2021-22 on lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.20 million tons, up moderately from last year and on a par with the five-year average.
Exports are forecast to remain unchanged. As per Agflow data, Canada exported 190,000 tons of Corn to Spain in 2021-2022. The Netherlands (96,000 tons), Portugal (91,000 tons), and Japan (60,000 tons) were the following markets.
Canada Corn and Global Comparison
The USDA estimated the 2022 seeded Corn area in the US is 89.9 million acres (Mac), slightly up from the March projections but 4% lower than last year. The USDA projects Corn acreage to be harvested to decline by the same extent from 2021 to 81.9 Mha due to lower seeded acres, assuming steady abandonment. Production is projected to decrease by 4% from 2021 to 14.5 million bushels. This is based on the lower harvested area forecast, while yield remains unchanged from last year’s record level. The average farm price is projected at US$6.65/bu, up sharply from $5.90 for 2021-22 and slightly below the record high of $6.89 reached in 2012-13.
The 2022-23 world Corn production is set at 1,186 million tons, down 3% from 2021-22 but 4% above the five-year average. Production in Argentina and Brazil, the world’s major Corn exporting countries, is expected to increase by 2.0 million tons and 10.0 million tons, respectively, to a new record high, while Corn production in Ukraine is expected to decline sharply by more than 17.0 million tons to a five-year low. World exportable surplus is predicted to drop considerably from last year, mainly due to the expected drop in exports from Ukraine.
As the main grain for feed use and feedstock for industrial use in the world, the global demand was strong and rising over the past decades. For 2022-23, it is expected to increase slightly from last year and be 4% higher than the five-year average. World ending stocks are projected to increase slightly from 2021-22 but be 1% lower than the five-year average.
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