Agricultural Market Coverage – Week 20
Reading time: 5 minutes
Argentina Sunseed: The last Hope for Vegoils?
Due to the conflict in Ukraine and Russia export tariffs, ~80% of all Sunseed supply is currently unavailable, leading to record Vegoils prices with the demand shifting to any & all supply available. Argentina also produces Sunseed, and demand for the product is increasing in 2022. Between Jan & Apr 2022, while Sunseed exports decreased 51% YoY, Sunseed Meal Pellets & Sunseed Oil increased by 90.1% & 53.3% YoY, respectively. However, export volumes remain low on a global scale and can only help alleviate the pressure on the Vegoils market momentarily.
Read also: Is China Really Down Imports in 2022
Read also: Is the Asian Market Struggling to Buy Wheat ?
Argentina Sunseed Complex Exports Between Jan & Apr 2022
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Read also: Here is Why Turkey and Iran Grain Imports Surged in August 2021
Read also: Is Soybean the Winner of the 2022 Vegoils Crisis ?
US Corn Wins Even When It Loses
US Corn in 2022 is less competitive than its LatAm counterparts in Asia as Corn prices are surging to record highs. Indeed, Jun US Corn CFR prices to Japan are ~ 79 $/mt higher than Brazil prices. Nonetheless, the US has the supply advantage, and despite US exports to Japan decreasing from Jan to Apr by ~39% YoY, Brazil suffered a greater loss, losing ~1.56 Mmt (-92.7%) exports YoY. However, while the US is liquidating its current crop, Brazil’s export crop is incoming, and recent showers could save what was meant to be a very good crop.
Japan Corn Imports by Origin Between Jan & Apr: 2022 v. 2021
Track Corn Cargos From Argentina, Brazil, and the US to 31 Countries in Asia
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Read also: Ain’t No Sunseed When the Black Sea Market Is Gone
Read also: Can The French Wheat Meet its Market in 2022 ?
Is the Asian Market Struggling to Buy Wheat?
The Asian market relies strongly on Wheat imports. Indonesia is the largest importer of the commodity, and many countries on the continent require Feed Wheat for their livestock. In May 2022, the India Wheat exports ban is leading Asian importers to find replacements. Between Jan & Apr 2022, Indonesia increased its LatAm Wheat imports with Argentina (+137.3% YoY) & Brazil (+458.8% YoY). Iran benefitted from Russia with 1.95 Mmt (+124%) Wheat imports over the period, Germany with 586 kmt (+98% YoY), and Kazakhstan with 202.5 kmt. Asian countries have already found replacements for the Ukraine Wheat supply. Spread across more than 30 Asian countries, and with Egypt trying to channel the supply, India Wheat exports cut is not necessarily a major loss for everyone.
Asian Countries Wheat Import Delta Between Jan & Apr: 2022 v. 2021
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Read also: Does Less Corn Mean Less Demand in 2022 ?
Read also: Why Are LatAm Wheat Exports Booming in 2022?
Russia Wheat Export Quotas Are Limiting Flows
Russian export quotas have limited Wheat exports since the beginning of the 2021/22 campaign. In May 2022, Wheat exports are expected to be limited to anywhere between 0.8 to 1.2 Mmt as exporters are reaching Quota limits. However, the export pace in May 2022 is much faster than the previous year. From May 1st to 19th, Russia exported ~314 kmt more of Wheat YoY, and 627 kmt is already shipped or booked for the rest of May 2022 so far. Russia exported 2.3 Mmt of Wheat in Apr 2022. With the reduced flow of Wheat shipped globally, and the 22/23 crop still months away, will Wheat prices surge once more?
Russia Wheat Exports Between May 1st & 19th: 2022 v. 2021
Read also: Is China Really Slowing Down Imports in 2022
Read also: What Disruptions Will the Black Sea Corn Market Cause to Your Trades ?
Read also: SovEcon ups Russian wheat crop forecast; Russia and Ukraine could export 60+ mmt of wheat in 2022/23
Track Wheat Cargos From Russia to China, Iran, & Up to 36 Other Destinations
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